Daily Technical analysis for February 19, 2021
Dollar extends fall in European morning trade
GBP/USD briefly clips 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018
The dollar gains from earlier in the week are evaporating as we see key levels being tested across multiple charts right now for the greenback.
EUR/USD is up to a high of 1.2134 and closing in on daily resistance near 1.2150 while GBP/USD has hit the key psychological level of 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018 as the technical breakout extends.
Adding to that is USD/JPY slumping to 105.35 back below its 200-day moving average @ 105.51 while AUD/USD is testing key resistance at the highs for the year around 0.7800-20 at the moment.
Even with oil prices slumping, the loonie has turned things around against the dollar as USD/CAD falls from 1.2700 to 1.2660 currently – pushing back below its key hourly moving averages @ 1.2679-91.
With key levels in play, this feels like a potential momentum swing against the dollar that could break the tide after having seen it keep more resilient at the start of the year.
Gold fails to find reprieve despite pressure on the dollar
Gold keeps lower by 0.3% but off the lows earlier in the day
If something can’t go up on good news, then there’s only one other way it will go.
That might just be the story for gold as it fails to catch a respite even as the dollar has slumped by quite a bit in European morning trade.
Gold had a bit of a scare earlier as it fell to its lowest levels since July last year in Asia Pacific trading, slipping to $1,760.67 before keeping closer to $1,770 currently.
For now, support from the 30 November low and the 50.0 retracement level of the swing move higher from March to August last year is the key level to watch for gold.
That support level rests in the region of $1,763.51 to $1,764.80.
A firm break below that is likely to accelerate declines for gold, with little in the way of a push below $1,700 next if the chart is anything to go by.
As much as gold has key fundamentals working in its favour over the long-term, this is not a chart that is doing much convincing. A flush lower may yet do gold some good in trimming stretched long positions before dip buyers step back in.
But given how things have developed as of late, there are likely better opportunities elsewhere (copper, silver, platinum) if one is to bank on the commodities ‘supercycle’ over the next few years – at least at this point in time given gold’s predicament.
Source: Technical analysis
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