DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 16, 2022petar skakalov
Current level – 1.0445
In the early hours of Thursday, the euro had gained strength against the dollar, and with the opening of the European session, it was quoted at a daily high of about 1.0505. There, however, the uptrend found resistance, and shortly before the release of the retail data for the United States, the currency pair started its decline. The data strengthened the dollar and the pair bottomed out at around its key level of 1.0358. Shortly afterwards, at 18:00 GMT, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to increase the key interest rate by 0.75 basis points – a decision they had not made since 1994. The effect was not delayed and we saw a 85-pip bounce from the bottom that ended the trading session at 1.0445. The probability for the dollar to continue rising after the Fed’s decision is high, and this could seriously affect the prolonged decline of the euro. However, whether we will see a higher correction and a follow-up bear attack will largely depend on the market reaction following the announcement of the unemployment claims data for the United States, which is expected today at 12:30 GMT.
Current level – 134.10
In the early hours of Thursday, the USD/JPY managed to reach a new monthly peak of 135.57. There, however, the bears found a good entry point, and after breaching the key level of 135.00, they managed to continue the pair’s decline following a short break. The decision to raise the U.S. interest rate had a negative effect on the currency pair and the correction deepened towards the support at 133.57. The day ended not far from it at prices of around 133.72. The trend is likely to continue in the upward direction and to mark new highs, as the Japanese bank is not expected to raise its interest rate this Friday. Still, a deepening of the correction towards the levels at around 133.00 should not be excluded, as the price provides a good market entry point for newly arriving bulls.
Current level – 1.2158
After finding its weekly low at 1.1931, the pound continued to rise throughout today’s early session. The weak dollar at the beginning of the day gave the bulls the strength to extend their attack towards the level at around 1.2121 following a short break and just a few hours before the Fed’s decision. After seeing the rise in the key interest rate of the U.S. to 1.75%, the sterling took advantage and continued its growth by rebounding from its key level of 1.2038. It then managed to reach 1.2202 as well and end the day a few pips below its peak. Today, everyone’s eyes will be on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision that is scheduled to be released at 11:00 GMT. The expectations are for a growth of 0.25%, but rumours are for a larger hike of 50 basis points. The volatility around such data is high and there will most likely be sharp movements in both directions.
Gold price tests the resistance
Gold price continued to rise to test the first key resistance 1838.10, keeping its stability below it until now, to keep the bearish trend scenario active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 that meets the mentioned resistance to add more strength to it.
Our expected targets start at 1810.00 and extend to 1780.25, taking into consideration that breaching 1838.10 followed by 1850.00 levels will stop the expected decline and lead the price to turn to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1805.00 support and 1850.00 resistance.
The expected trend for today: Bearish
Source: Technical analysis