Daily Technical analysis for March 10, 2021
Dollar holds firmer ahead of European trading
The dollar recovers some ground after the drop yesterday
The dollar is advancing to the highs for the day ahead of European morning trade today, with EUR/USD seen slipping to 1.1871 and USD/JPY rising to 108.91 currently.
The former is easing from 1.1900 as sellers keep near-term control and are still staying in search of a firmer test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) @ 1.1832.
Elsewhere, the greenback is also maintaining a modest advance against the commodity currencies with USD/CAD up 0.3% to 1.2680 and AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.7670.
US Treasury yields are keeping a touch higher, with 10-year yields up 1 bps to 1.537%, though keeping lower compared to the levels seen last Friday and on Monday.
The risk rebound yesterday is also fizzling out as US futures are seen down 0.2% after a more solid session yesterday.
It may be a relatively quiet one in Europe with the push and pull this week still playing out ahead of the 10-year Treasury auction in US trading later.
Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Strong Move Over $1711.70 Could Mean Gold Hit Bottom on Friday
The direction of the April Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $1711.70. Gold futures finished slightly lower on Friday after clawing back earlier losses. Despite reports in the press and from some lazy analysts, the market did not make its low of the session following the release of the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nom-Farm Payrolls report.
During the pre-market session, gold futures hit a low of $1683.00. Shortly after the release of the report, gold plunged to $1683.80. This is significant because it represents a potentially bullish divergence from U.S. Treasury yields which touched a new high for the year after the jobs data was released.
Although gold futures closed lower for the session on Friday, it actually closed higher than it was trading immediately before the release of the robust jobs report. In my opinion, this was an important event that could translate into higher prices this upcoming week.
More importantly, at 13:30 GMT, gold was trading $1693.70. So following the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, gold closed up $4.80 or +0.28%.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1683.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1815.20.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1739.10 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.
The major retracement zone is $1711.70 to $1787.30. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Gold closed on the weak side of this zone, but just below the lower or Fibonacci level at $1711.70.
The minor range is $1815.20 to $1683.00. Its 50% level at $1749.10 is the first short-term upside target price.
The short-term range is $1966.80 to $1683.00. If the main trend changes to up then look for the rally to extend into its retracement zone at $1824.90 to $1858.40.
Source: Technical analysis