DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR MAY 05, 2022petar skakalov
Current level – 1.0609
The European session started calmly – with a slight decline towards 1.0510, but after the opening of the U.S. stock exchange at 13:30 GMT, the EUR bulls took control. Any speculative movements prior to the release of the U.S. interest rates were rather weak, but after they were raised by 0.50% to 1.00%, the reaction was immediate and the breach of the previous resistance at 1.0565 was convincing. The statement of Jerome Powell helped calm the dollar even more and the session ended at a high of 1.0630. The macroeconomic calendar shows that the week is expected to continue treading highly volatile waters, and that the NFP data for the U.S. on Friday at 12:30 GMT is likely to further reinforce this volatility. If the expected 3.5% unemployment and the 390,000 new jobs become a fact, then we could see the growth of the single European currency continue towards at least 1.0705, but if the data is even better than expected, then a jump in the dollar and the continuation of the downward trend could be the more likely scenario.
Current level – 129.17
The liquidity was quite scarce throughout the day as Japan celebrated a second public holiday and the banks were closed. The pair was hovering around 130.25, and soon after the U.S. main interest rate increase was announced at 18:00 GMT, the dollar reacted negatively and the USD/JPY entered a strong corrective movement. The yen managed to gain 70 pips on the wings of rising volatility and the decline stopped at around 128.65. The session continued with a slight rebound for the dollar, ending at the previous key level of 129.30. Whether the dollar will recover and move towards new highs above 130.25 or correct further in search of a better price at around 127.45 will depend on traders’ reaction to the U.S. NFP data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Today’s session will most likely remain limited between the levels of 128.65 and 129.30.
Current level – 1.2630
The Cable’s session was hesitant as it initially managed to accumulate 30 pips, but quickly handed them over before the Fed’s decision on the key interest rate was released at 18:00 GMT. However, the bulls seized their chance to attack following the negative reaction of the dollar and breached the previous resistance at 1.2595 in a movement, similar to that of the EUR/USD. The rally continued and managed to reach levels of 1.2630, around which the session had ended. Rising inflation in the UK is expected to push the BoE to boost the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.00% today at 11:00 GMT. What the market’s reaction will be, however, is yet to be seen. The probability of an upward movement in the Cable is higher due to the weakened dollar, but the possibility of the dollar rising after Friday’s U.S. NFP data report should not be underestimated, with the first support being the level at 1.2595.
Gold price is recovering
Gold price rallied upwards strongly yesterday to attack 1890.00 level, starting today with additional positivity to breach this level and move away from it, which leads the price to turn to rise on the intraday basis and attempt to achieve gains that start by testing 1925.35 level, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 1960.00.
Therefore, we expect to witness more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions unless breaking 1890.00 and holding below it again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1885.00 support and 1925.35 resistance.
The expected trend for today: Bullish
Source: Technical analysis