EUR/USD

Current level – 1.0435

Since Friday, the euro managed to find a bottom at around 1.0364, and on the first trading day of this week, it managed to continue its rally against the dollar. The marked weakness of the U.S. currency across the currency board was evident and allowed the bulls to gain ground. However, with the opening of the U.S. stock exchange at 13:30 GMT, the pair corrected around the resistance at 1.0440. Another upward momentum followed suit, which again hit the mentioned resistance and ended the session below the aforementioned level.Today’s macroeconomic calendar is expected to show data on the retail sales in the U.S. (12:30 GMT). If said data does not disappoint the traders and pushes them to buy the dollar, then the EUR/USD may have another decline on its hands, which could take it below the support of 1.0364. In the opposite scenario, in which the market’s reaction to the presented data is negative, the dollar might start to lose ground against the common European currency and the level at 1.0482 may be reached again.

USD/JPY

Current level –  129.14

The strength of the dollar against the yen from last week has weakened, and in the early hours of today’s session, we saw an 80-pip drop towards the key level of 128.70, where the USD/JPY found support. The following correction towards the resistance at 129.50 gave the bears some good entry points and they increased their short volumes. As a direct result, the Ninja lost even more ground. Whether the dollar will show strength and once more search for levels at around 130.50 depends on the market sentiment after the data on the U.S. retail sales is released at 12:30 GMT. A scenario, in which traders are disappointed following the release, should not be ruled out and declines towards the level of 127.48 can be expected.

GBP/USD

Current level – 1.2315

In the first trading session of the week, the bulls seem to be in full control of the sterling. The day started calmly – with a slight decline towards the support at 1.2215, but during the working hours of the European and the U.S. stock exchanges, the GBP/USD started an aggressive rally. The key level at around 1.2270 was breached after BOE governor Andrew Bailey’s statement that inflation is expected to rise towards a new peak of 10% by the end of the year. Activity today is expected to pick up after 6:00 GMT, when data on the UK labour force will be released. Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, while wages are not likely to rise on a quarterly basis. Whether the pound will rise towards 1.2400 will largely depend on the reaction of the traders. The possibility of a recovery of the downward trend should not be neglected either, after which the Cable might target the levels at 1.2170.

Gold price attempts to recover 

Gold price shows positive trades since yesterday to approach testing the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, accompanied by stochastic entering the overbought areas, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure on the price.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the overall bearish trend, which its next target located at 1780.25, noting that breaching 1838.00 followed by 1850.00 levels will stop the expected decline and lead the price to achieve more gains on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1800.00 support and 1838.00 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Overall bearish

Source: Technical analysis