Is the end of the long-term US dollar rally approaching
In October the Federal Reserve took fiscal maneuvers, raising cash to boost liquidity. This oversupply of dollars led to the “expulsion” of the bulls from the USD.
Recent CFTC data shows that US dollar long speculative positions continue to decline. This week will be of interest to the USD because the data was until last Tuesday, before Powell spoke.
“I think we will first have to see a significant rise in inflation that is sustainable before we take the next rate hike.” – Powell’s statement followed the interest rate ruling on Wednesday.
The profitability of the USD is still normal, but not as attractive as before, especially with the approaching presidential elections and overall geopolitical uncertainty.
It is too early to reach a final conclusion, but this is a hint that the end of the long-term US dollar rally may be approaching. Given the likelihood of a successful Brexit and the positive end of the trade war, this thought is very easy to penetrate into the minds of market participants.
Graphs: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Graphs: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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