Yen declines on year-end US dollar demand
The dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday amid fiscal year-end demand by Japanese companies and the Chinese yuan stood firm after a survey showed manufacturing returned to growth in March.
Tuesday is the last trading day of Japan’s fiscal year and the end of the quarter for major investors elsewhere, which has fueled some volatility as big currency market players closed their books. The bulk of those positioning changes caused the dollar to strengthen.
“The talk is Japanese names are short of dollars, which is likely to keep the dollar bid well into London time,” said Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.
Against a basket of six other currencies, the dollar rose 0.4%to 99.5. It reached 102.99, its highest in more than three years, earlier this month as a global market selloff fueled a rush for dollars. Dollar demand has ebbed, but analysts are still forecasting more dollar gains.
For the quarter, the dollar was the biggest gainer, rising 2.5%. The Norwegian crown was the biggest loser, falling 19% versus the greenback.
China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index unexpectedly showed activity swung to expansion in March. China’s economy is still expected to see a large contraction in the first quarter.
Broader market gauges of dollar funding and market volatility also declined from multi-year highs on Tuesday. Three-month currency swaps in euro-dollar flipped into a rare premium against the dollar.
Those volatile moves are probably a function of quarter-end flows rather than pointing to any structural imbalances in the FX markets, according to Kenneth Broux, a currency strategist at Societe Generale in London